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Sains Malaysiana 53(11)(2024): 3791-3801
http://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2024-5311-21
Projection of
Older Population in Malaysia by Physical Disability Status
(Unjuran Penduduk Tua di Malaysia Mengikut Status Ketidakupayaan Fizikal)
MUHAMMAD
AZIZ1, MOHD AZMI HARON1,*,
ZAILAN SIRI1 & NORISZURA ISMAIL2
1Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty
of Science, Universiti Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur,
Malaysia
Diserahkan: 28 Jun 2024/Diterima:
27 September 2024
Abstract
In
Malaysia, the well-being of individuals with disabilities remains a concern.
Addressing the situation of individuals with disabilities and the aging population
is critical for the future of Malaysia. This study utilizes a multistate
approach to assess the transition probability of disability among older adults
in Malaysia. We utilize information from the National Health Morbidity Survey
(NHMS) 2019 to parameterize a functional Markov Model and employ a
cohort-component projection method for projecting the Malaysian population for
2020–2040 by disability status. The probability of becoming disabled increases
with age and is higher for females than males. By 2040, it is anticipated that
Malaysia will have nearly 1.7 million disabled older persons experiencing at
least two of the six physical limitations delineated in the National Health
Morbidity Survey 2019. With advancing age, there is a progressive increase in
the likelihood of experiencing disability. The projected 13% of Malaysians aged
65 and above by 2040 emphasizes the necessity for enhanced eldercare social
security.
Keywords:
Disability; long-term care; Malaysian older adults; NHMS 2019; population
projection
Abstrak
Di
Malaysia, kesejahteraan orang kurang upaya (OKU) masih menjadi kebimbangan. Menangani situasi kekurangan upaya dan populasi warga emas adalah kritikal untuk masa depan Malaysia.
Kajian ini menggunakan pendekatan berbilang keadaan untuk menilai kebarangkalian peralihan status kekurangan upaya dalam kalangan warga emas di Malaysia. Maklumat daripada Tinjauan Morbiditi Kesihatan Kebangsaan (NHMS) 2019 digunakan untuk memparameterkan Model Markov fungsi dan kaedah unjuran komponen kohort untuk mengunjurkan populasi Malaysia bagi tempoh 2020-2040 mengikut status kekurangan upaya. Kebarangkalian menjadi OKU meningkat dengan usia dan lebih tinggi bagi wanita berbanding lelaki. Menjelang 2040, Malaysia dijangkakan akan mempunyai hampir 1.7 juta warga emas OKU yang mengalami sekurang-kurangnya dua daripada enam batasan fizikal yang digariskan dalam Tinjauan Morbiditi Kesihatan Kebangsaan 2019. Dengan pertambahan usia, kebarangkalian mengalami kekurangan upaya akan meningkat secara progresif. Unjuran 13% rakyat Malaysia berumur 65 tahun ke atas menjelang 2040 menekankan keperluan untuk jaminan sosial penjagaan warga emas yang lebih baik.
Kata kunci: Jagaan jangka panjang; kekurangan upaya; NHMS 2019; orang tua Malaysia; unjuran populasi
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